The Watcher’s Council has announced its picks for the most outstanding posts of the preceding week. The winner in the Council post category was Joshuapundit’s post, “Who Cares About Israel, Anyway?”. Second place honors went to Right Wing Nut House for “Party Like It’s 1980 All Over Again”.

The winning non-Council post was Huffinton Post’s “Losing Our Spines to Save Our Necks”, a cautionary note about the potential slippery slope and loss of civil liberties in the name of multi-culturalism. Second place honors went to The Long War Journal’s “Iraqis begin to ‘despise’ the Mahdi Army in Baghdad’s Rusafa district”. Much of the best news coverage of the war in Iraq is coming from the journalists who began as bloggers and Bill Ardolino’s is some of the best. I nominated it.

The complete results are here.

Do you remember the explosion at an Iranian mosque I commented on a month ago? Well it turns out that the explanation that was offered at the time by the Iranian authorities, that the explosion was of leftover exhibits from a commemoration of the war with Iraq, wasn’t credible, just as I intimated. The Iranian authorities themselves are denying it:

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran’s judiciary said on Monday it would file international lawsuits against the United States and Britain, accusing them of providing financial support to those behind a blast in a mosque that killed 14 people.

Iran’s intelligence minister last week said Iran had arrested five or six members of a terrorist group with links to Britain and the United States who he said were involved in the explosion that also wounded 200 in the southern city of Shiraz.

Iranian officials had previously said the April 12 blast, during an evening prayer sermon by a prominent local cleric, was caused by explosives left over from an exhibition commemorating the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war.

Judiciary spokesman Ali-Reza Jamshidi told state television the terrorists behind the bombing were agents of the U.S. and British governments in Iran.

“The relationship of those who planted the bombs in Shiraz with the U.S. and Britain was identified and they were being financially supported and in fact they acted as foreign agents in Iran,” he said.

“In view of the documents obtained the judiciary in cooperation with the government and the Foreign Ministry will file lawsuits with international authorities against their supporters, who on the one hand claim to fight terrorists and on the other hand provide them with equipment,” he said.

I’ve got to admit that this whole matter baffles me. A month has passed and whatever physical evidence was available has no doubt been scoured clean. The only evidence there is now is what the plaintiff, the Iranian government, provides. I’m sure that, given the history of the Iranian regime, whatever questioning there has been of the alleged perpetrators of the bombing was done with complete compliance with international norms.

And wouldn’t being successful in this suit potentially be more dangerous for the Iranians than anything they might possibly gain? Iran’s ties to terrorist groups are public, admitted, and well known. In the wake of a successful case don’t you think the Israelis would haul the Iranians into court with dozens of cases? I don’t see how they could resist.

Curiouser and curiouser.

I don’t know whether I’ve ever shared this belief with you before but I believe that for most people their virtues are their faults, viewed from a different vantage point. George W. Bush has many faults. Many, many faults. Many, many, many faults. Many…you get what I mean. However, he is loyal to his staff, well, to a fault. In fact that is one of his faults. He tends to back his staff and express confidence in them whether they deserve it or not.

Let me be the first to predict that this isn’t one of the problems we can expect from an Obama presidency:

We started covering Sen. Barack Obama’s inability to hire good staffers in June 2007, when he blamed staffers for some opposition research trying to link Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, to outsourcing in India; for injecting some venom in the David Geffen/Hillary Clinton fight; and for missing an event with firefighters in New Hampshire.

In December, we noted again that Obama was blaming the answers on a 1996 questionnaire on a staffer; and was blaming his touring with “cured” ex-gay gospel singer Donnie McClurkin (which antagonized gays and lesbians) on bad vetting by his staff.

Those five buck-passing incidents were apparently not enough.

[…]

So, for those keeping track at home, that’s ten instances of Obama publicly blaming his staff for various screw-ups.

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10!

(You of course could also add Austan Goolsbee, Samantha Power, Gordon Fischer, and retired Gen. Tony McPeak.)

That would be 14. We will continue to keep track.

And let me offer a little good advice on subordinates courtesy of Nicolo Macchiavelli:

I do not wish to leave out an important branch of this subject, for it is a danger from which princes are with difficulty preserved, unless they are very careful and discriminating. It is that of flatterers, of whom courts are full, because men are so self-complacent in their own affairs, and in a way so deceived in them, that they are preserved with difficulty from this pest, and if they wish to defend themselves they run the danger of falling into contempt. Because there is no other way of guarding oneself from flatterers except letting men understand that to tell you the truth does not offend you; but when every one may tell you the truth, respect for you abates.

Therefore a wise prince ought to hold a third course by choosing the wise men in his state, and giving to them only the liberty of speaking the truth to him, and then only of those things of which he inquires, and of none others; but he ought to question them upon everything, and listen to their opinions, and afterwards form his own conclusions. With these councillors, separately and collectively, he ought to carry himself in such a way that each of them should know that, the more freely he shall speak, the more he shall be preferred; outside of these, he should listen to no one, pursue the thing resolved on, and be steadfast in his resolutions. He who does otherwise is either overthrown by flatterers, or is so often changed by varying opinions that he falls into contempt.

You can identify a strong leader because he or she will have strong, forthright yet circumspect subordinates.

This morning Paul Krugman came down on the same side of the “Oil Bubble” issue that I did—there ain’t no such animule:

The only way speculation can have a persistent effect on oil prices, then, is if it leads to physical hoarding — an increase in private inventories of black gunk. This actually happened in the late 1970s, when the effects of disrupted Iranian supply were amplified by widespread panic stockpiling.

But it hasn’t happened this time: all through the period of the alleged bubble, inventories have remained at more or less normal levels. This tells us that the rise in oil prices isn’t the result of runaway speculation; it’s the result of fundamental factors, mainly the growing difficulty of finding oil and the rapid growth of emerging economies like China. The rise in oil prices these past few years had to happen to keep demand growth from exceeding supply growth.

Saying that high-priced oil isn’t a bubble doesn’t mean that oil prices will never decline. I wouldn’t be shocked if a pullback in demand, driven by delayed effects of high prices, sends the price of crude back below $100 for a while. But it does mean that speculators aren’t at the heart of the story.

Or, said another way, there is no big pool of oil.

One of my dad’s editorials.

Seldom has the United States Supreme Court been more emphatic in upholding civil liberties than it was in the opinion written by Justice Hugo L. Black reversing the conviction for murder of four Florida Negroes who had “confessed” under pressure of third degree methods which the court said were “calculated to break the strongest nerves and the stoutest resistance.”

The specific issue involved was whether the requirement of due process had been complied with. The court said it had not. But Black’s opinion went far beyond the narrow legal ruling… and it is because of that that the case is important. Black added a declaration which makes it clear that all those who come before the court on similarly “manufactured” evidence will be accorded jealous protection:

“Under our constitutional system, courts stand against any winds that blow as havens of refuge from those who might otherwise suffer because they are helpless, weak, outnumbered, or because they are non-conforming victims of prejudice and public excitement.”

Thus it is apparent that the court was thinking not only of this case, but of persecuted peoples of all races and persuasions. Such a vigorous assertion of American minority rights in these days of totalitarian practices, is something to warm the blood with new hope.

There were other factors that made this decision significant. Among them is the fact that Black wrote it. In 1937, Black was under fire because of his former membership in the Ku Klux Klan-which suggested he might have narrow, prejudiced conceptions inconsistent with the traditions of the court. Yet now he appears as the voice of the bench on civil liberties, backed by a unanimous court, giving him the authority to read the decision in full—a sharp departure from the customary procedure.

The court has given an admirable expression of its concern for justice and equality. As long as its holds such lofty ideals, there need be little fear that dictatorship will become the order of the day in America.

Last weekend my wife, three dogs, and I went to the Scott County Kennel Club show in the Quad Cities. We stayed, as usual, at The Caboose and had a wonderful restful time. I had the first extended completely computer-free time I’ve had in quite a while. Needless to say I did no blog posting or reading.

Although Will and Nola got dumped both days, Tally got two legs on her RA (Rally Advanced) in rally obedience. As she and Janice passed the agility ring she looked longingly at it but those days are now behind her—the spirit is willing but the pace, jumps, and plain physicality of agility is too much for Tally now. It’s a joy to see my wife and Tally working together in Rally obedience and Tally gets an enormous charge out of working with her again.

There’s a report that Iranian-made missiles are being found in Basra:

The Iraqi minister of defense pushed the debate with the Iranians over their provision of weapons to Shia militias one more step on Monday. Minister Abdul Qadir Obeidi indirectly confronted the Iranians, without naming them, with new findings that prove their involvement in the arming of Shia militias.

On Monday, state-owned al-Sabah published a statement by the minister in which he spoke of the capture of a certain type of rocket that was never found in militia-held caches until now:

Defense minister Abdul Qadir Mohammed Obeidi revealed that army troops found a 200-mm ground-to-ground rocket manufactured in 2007 during a search operation by the troops north of Basra. Obeidi told al-Sabah in an exclusive interview that, under international laws and norms, this kind of rocket can be traded only with the approval of parliaments and is used only at times of extreme necessity during wars … and wondered how this rocket entered the country. Obeidi added that this rocket can be launched only from a special platform and by specialized crews.

From what I read in Iraq’s two biggest newspapers, it seems that the government is trying to step up the rhetoric against Iranian interference in Iraq and to induce uproar among the Iraqi public. Azzaman had the following information about the found rocket, provided by “intelligence officials“:

The rocket was manufactured in 2007 in Iran and is called Falaq-1. Falaq-1 is a strategic missile of immense destruction power and was used by Hezbollah against Israel in the July 2006 war. … The sources mentioned that launching this type of rocket requires a crew of several people with advanced technological expertise. … The sources, who preferred to remain unnamed, said that if this rocket was launched at a target, it could obliterate an entire city and kill all of its inhabitants even if those numbered by the tens of thousands. … The same sources added that increasing the range of the rocket is not a complex process and can be done inside Iraq and clarified that the discovery of this strategic rocket in Basra poses a threat to security in Iraq and the Middle East. The sources expressed fear that large numbers of this rocket might have entered Iraq with crews to launch them. If that happens then we’d be on the brink of a domestic and regional security crisis.

If I’m not mistaken the missile being referred to is something very similar to the old Russian BM-24 “Katyusha” rockets, a tactical weapon rather than a strategic one, and both the sophistication of the weapon and its destructive capability are somewhat exaggerated in the translated quotes from al-Sabah, above. Still, these weapons are not the sort of thing that Iraqi militias are cooking up in their basements or making out of old cellphones, nails, and a little explosive. They’re good-sized manufactured weapons.

Here’s my question. Let’s assume that the reports are true. What’s the proper course of action? I’m sure that the usual suspects will immediately want to attack Iran and others of the usual suspects will think that the entire thing is being trumped up by the Bush Administration.

I’m on record as opposing the use of military force by the U. S. against Iran on the grounds that it would be both ineffective and counterproductive. Consistent with that I think the right course of action is for Iraq to take its evidence to the United Nations Security Council and ask for sanctions against Iran.

What do you think?

what do

That’s how former New York Mayor Ed Koch is being quoted as describing the Illinois senator in an interview at The Huffington Post. Frankly, I think that’s a bit strong. Nothing’s sure in politics other than, as the late Mayor Daley once put it, that however it looks somebody will be elected. But the description at THP fits my judgment pretty closely:

As Democrats coalesce around Sen. Barack Obama, one of Hillary Clinton’s must outspoken supporters is not mincing words: the party is walking needlessly and unaware into a general election buzzsaw.

I think that events are coming together that make a Democratic victory pretty likely: an unpopular Republican president at the end of his second term, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan wearing on, gasoline prices rising, the economy in the doldrums (or, at least, sellable as in the doldrums), the Republican Party apparently in disarray. The Democrats are making the electoral hill much harder to climb than they might, displaying their penchant for seizing defeat from the jaws of victory.

As you may know the members of the Watcher’s Council each nominate one of his or her own posts and one non-Council post for consideration by the whole Council. The complete list of this week’s Council nominations is here.

Done With Mirrors, “Death and the Madam”

Callimachus reflects on the death of Deborah Palfrey, the “D. C. Madam”.

Wolf Howling, “Obama As Marley”

GW reviews how Barack Obama’s associations over the years will return to haunt his campaign for the presidency.

Soccer Dad, “I Have a Nightmare”

Soccer Dad comments on remarks of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s and, yes, it’s remarkable the lack of intellectual coherence in the African American civil rights movement over the years.

The Glittering Eye, “Whither?”

I think that anybody who thinks that Americans long for some glorious commander to take charge and lead them out of the wilderness is talking about some other America. Or maybe Singapore.

The Colossus of Rhodey, “Al Gore Won Florida in 2000”

Hube complains that the mythology of the 2000 election has overwhelmed the facts of the election.

Rhymes With Right, “It’s Too Late To Turn Back Now”

Greg notes that Sen. Obama would never turn his back on Rev. Wright until it was politically expedient to do so.

Bookworm Room, “Are You Ready To Be a Democrat?”

A few of the quips that Bookworm passes on about Democrats are funny, some are completely off the mark, I found most simply tedious.

Cheat Seeking Missiles, “Fatal Energy Policies”

I’d like to add one point to Laer’s commentary on a column of Thomas Friedman’s about the alternative energy industry. That you’ll need to accept a domestic partner in doing business overseas is merely a fact of life; it’s part of the cost of doing business. Remember that when you hear about American technology companies putting new plants in Germany, for example.

The Education Wonks, “Merit Pay Chronicles: A Teacher Speaks!”

EdWonk takes note of a teacher’s remarks on merit pay. The simple fact of life is that teachers are going to have to accept some kind of performance measurement. It would be nice if we could rely on the good will and conscientiousness of managers all the way up the line but the truth is that we haven’t been able to. I agree that merit pay is a flawed idea. What’s the alternative?

Hillbilly White Trash, “Random Thoughts”

Lemuel Calhoun’s submission this week is a collection of mini-posts. I think his observation about seating the Michigan and Florida delegates is a good one (although I’d've phrased it a little differently), I think he makes some very important points about the Tuskegee Experiment, I’ve said everything about the Rev. Jeremiah Wright that I care to, he questions the motives of the global warming cranks, I pretty much agree with his point about ethanol (although, again, I’d've phrased it differently), I think that John McCain will receive whatever support he receives from conservatives that he receives but that he’ll need moderates and independents to win the election, and I think we’ve reached the point in the development of our legal system at which judges and lawyers need different training and being required to pass through a metal detector before going into a courthouse is sad but it doesn’t particularly bother me.

Joshuapundit, “Who Cares About Israel, Anyway?”

Freedom Fighter takes Israel’s 60th anniversary as an opportunity to comment on Israel’s value to us as an ally. I agree with that as far as it goes. However, I think that we need to recognize that U. S. interests and Israeli interests are not synonymous and that Arabs are not necessarily our enemies.

Right Wing Nut House, “Party Like It’s 1980 All Over Again”

Well, I agree with my blog-friend Rick Moran that Democrats need to convince Americans that a major change in order to sell their way into the White House. I think it’s really remarkable how much mileage they’re getting out of running against George Bush and his policies without promising to do much different (except possibly by moving in the wrong direction).

Well, I’ve decided which posts I’ll vote for this week. Which posts would get your votes?

Here’s an interesting bit of information. Toyota’s profits have dropped sharply:

HONG KONG -

Toyota Motor stunned markets on Thursday by posting an unexpected 28% drop in fourth-quarter profit and forecasting a decline of similar magnitude in annual net profit in the current fiscal year.

Toyota, the world’s second-largest automaker by production volume after General Motors (nyse: GM - news - people ), reported Thursday that its net profit fell 28%, to 316.8 billion yen ($3.0 billion), for the three months ended in March, down from 440.1 billion yen ($4.2 billion) in the comparable period the previous year. The January-March quarterly net profit figure fell below an average estimate of 342.3 billion yen ($3.3 billion) from 20 brokerages surveyed by Reuters Estimates, thanks to a stronger yen and weaker sales in the key North American market.

The carmaker’s operating profit, excluding the results of its Chinese joint ventures, slid 30.5%, to 396.7 billion yen ($3.8 billion), while revenues rose 3.8%, to 6.6 trillion yen ($63.2 billion)

Note that Toyota is the world’s leading manufacturer of hybrids, more of its Priuses having been sold than all other hybrids combined. Despite sharp increases in hybrid sales of the last several years they still consitute a miniscule portion of total vehicle sales. When the price of oil increases its easier and more economical to drive less than to go out and buy a hybrid, I guess.

Toyota attributes much of the drop to the slowing U. S. economy but rising commodity prices have increased their costs, too. If Toyota’’s profits are falling, I can only guess at what’s happening at the embattled GM and Ford. IIRC GM has been posting losses and Ford a very small profit. Expect conditions to look even worse in the auto industry, especially as Chinese and Indian-made vehicles start coming into developing markets.